Thursday, June 2, 2011

Flood Update - Stories throughout the basin

As the flood moves through the reservoirs in Montana and the Dakotas, unprecedented flooding is occurring in communities adjacent to the river below the dams. Rain continues to fall in Montana and snow melt has certainly begun in earnest, flowing into already swollen tributaries that feed the dams.

Several of the dams have reached capacity, and now Garrison Dam, above Bismark/Mandan North Dakota has begun opening it's spillway gates. This is part of the emergency plan the Corps has in place, but is the first time this has happened. Pierre, SD below Oahe Reservoir is being hit very hard, with emergency levees being built and preparing for over a month of very high releases.

In the lower river, below the Gavin's Point Dam, upstream communities are seeing rising waters in direct correlation with the increasing dam releases (now releasing at 85,000cfs) . Those releases will be increasing fast over the weekend and into next week, reaching 140,000 cfs by early next week (a bit earlier than previously projected). 

The Corps has released flood inundation maps for the Omaha District (the Dakotas south to Rulo, NE). You can view them and other helpful documents on the US. Army Corps of Engineers Omaha District Flood Response Page by clicking here. The Kansas City District has provided a range of river stages to be expected from Rulo, NE to Hermann, MO throughout June and July, as the dams are releasing 150,000. You can access those on the Kansas City District Flood Response Page by clicking here. They also have offered a document showing at what level each levee will be overtopped and how likely that is (click here for levee projections)

Just how bad this will get is uncertain everywhere...the rapidity of snowmelt and precipitation can change everything. But the further downstream you go the more uncertain it gets, with the addition of tributaries like the Platte, Kansas, Grand, Osage and Gasconade. If there is significant rain, even similar to the last several years, we are looking at levels we haven't seen since 1995.

Here's a few stories from throughout the basin:

Montana
Associated Press, May 30, 2011 - "More rain, snow, National Guard troops for Mont."
Towns in Montana and the Dakotas struggle with flooding, prepare for more.

North and South Dakota
Huffington Post, May 31, 2011 - "Missouri River Flooding 2011: South Dakota Residents Told Evacuation Could Last 2 Months (with video)"
Towns are sandbagging and evacuating communities predicted to flood for several months.

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Release, May 31, 2011 - "Garrison Dam spillway gates to open for floodwaters for first time"

Cherokee Chronicle Times, May 31, 2011 - "South Dakota towns erect flood walls"

Nebraska
Lincoln Journal Star, May 31, 2011 - "Diminsions of river overflows getting deeper"
Reservoirs in in the Platte are being drawn down as soon as possible ahead of snowmelt and ahead of highest Missouri River flows. Eyes are on the Cooper Nuclear Plant near Brownville, NE, where the access road from Brownville is flooded and 6.5 more feet of water would force a plant shutdown.

Video: from Omaha World Herald Tribune of flooding in many NE and IA communities, June 2, 2011 - "Flooding Sights and Sounds"

Iowa
Sioux City Journal, June 1, 2011 - "Plan for South Sioux City flood barrier takes shape"
& "Flood of 2011 one for the history books"


Omaha World-Herald, June 2, 2011 - "Southwest Iowans pack up"

Missouri
St. Joseph News Press, June 1, 2011 - "Army Corps predicts river at 27 to 32 feet in St. Joseph"

Columbia Missourian, June 1, 2011 - "Record Precipitation, Reservoir Releases to Cause Missouri River Flooding"
A great overview of the flood from the perspective of Mid-Missouri.

KMOX - ABC News St. Louis, June 2, 2011 - "NWS: Dire Warning About “Significant Flooding” Threat Along Missouri River"



Wednesday, June 1, 2011

Some 2011 Flood Resources

Just wanted to get a few links out there, where you can find more information relevant to your location along the Missouri River. Many of the prediction products will be updated, so check back in to the District Flood pages to find updates.

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Omaha District Flood Resource Page - they handle the reservoir releases and the Missouri River from North Dakota to Rulo, NE - http://www.nwo.usace.army.mil/html/op-e/flood.html


U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Kansas City District Flood Resource Page - they handle the Missouri River from Rulo, NE, to Hermann, MO - http://www.nwk.usace.army.mil/Flood/index.cfm
National Weather Service Advanced Hydrological Prediction: http://water.weather.gov//ahps2/glance.php?wfo=eax&gage=kcdm7&riverid=203276&view=1,1,1,1,1,1
Check the boxes of the river gages you want to view on the left, click the info you want to view on the right, then click "Make my River Page" on the bottom. This only takes into account 24 hours advanced precipitation, but will have the reservoir releases built in to its prediction.

Sunday, May 29, 2011

Corps updates reservoir release forecast to unprecedented levels

On Saturday evening, May 28, the Corps of Engineers updated reservoir release projections again. The previous record release from Gavin's Point Dam was 70,000 cfs in 1997. Projected releases by mid-June have been increased to 150,000 cfs.

Press Releases from the US Army Corps Omaha District can be accessed on their website here: http://www.nwo.usace.army.mil/html/pa/pahm/newsreleases2011.htm

Here's the Corps release:

Omaha, Neb. – Rapidly changing weather conditions in Montana, northern Wyoming and the western Dakotas have prompted the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to make adjustments to previously announced releases. Future releases will reach record levels considerably higher than those previously announced.

Releases from the Missouri River reservoirs, already at historic levels, will be increased again due to higher than forecast rains in North Dakota yesterday. Record flows and flooding are the result of above-normal snowpack and extraordinary rain events during the last several weeks. Significant flooding in cities, towns and agricultural land is expected in North and South Dakota with many areas from Sioux City, Iowa, to the Mississippi rising above flood stage.

Flows from five of the six dams are expected to reach a record 150,000 cfs by no later than mid-June. The previous record releases took place in the fall of 1997 at Gavins Point Dam in Yankton, S.D.

“Protecting lives is our number one priority right now,” said Brig. Gen. John McMahon, Commander of the Northwestern Division of the Army Corps of Engineers. “We are working closely with state and local emergency management teams to identify potential flood areas, provide residents with the most current information and help protect vital public infrastructure.”

People living along the river are encouraged to make evacuation plans to protect their possessions and property. Maps for potential flood areas can be found at: www.nwo.usace.army.mil. Residents in communities along the river are encouraged to contact their local emergency management offices for additional details.

Flooded areas are expected to be inundated for several months.

“Moving water out of the reservoirs is essential,” said General McMahon. “Our release plan is based on the rain we’ve already received and that which is forecast for this weekend and the snow melt forecast. More heavy rain storms could cause major revisions.”

“Due to our vigilant dam safety program, all dams are well prepared to handle the onslaught of floodwaters,” said McMahon. “This is what these reservoirs were designed to do. They are inspected and maintained on rigid schedules. Our dams are sound.”

In the last month, portions of the upper basin have received a year’s worth of rain. “The amount of rain has nearly filled the reservoirs, doing away with the flexibility we had built into our operations for this year,” said Jody Farhat, Chief of the Water Management Division here. “With the arrival of the 140 percent-of-normal snowpack runoff, all the reservoirs will reach their maximum levels, and two will use surcharge storage requiring the operation of the spillways.” Surcharge storage is storage in excess of the exclusive flood control pool. The exclusive flood control pool is the area of the reservoir designed exclusively for the storage of floodwaters.

“Our initial release plans were based on rains already received as well as what’s in the forecast for snowmelt,” said Farhat. “The continuous heavy rains we’re experiencing throughout the basin have dramatically altered our release plans and if we continue to receive heavy rains like this, major revisions in the plan will be necessary.”

Releases out of Fort Peck, Mont., will start to step up next week and are expected to reach 50,000 cfs by June 6. The reservoir will use several feet of surcharge storage above the exclusive flood control pool as the spillway gates are raised.

Garrison releases will increase from the current 80,000 cfs to 85,000 cfs on Monday and Tuesday, and will quickly be stepped up to 120,000 in early June. Releases are scheduled to reach 150,000 cfs no later than mid-June. The reservoir will utilize several feet of surcharge storage above the exclusive flood control pool as the spillway gates are raised. For the first time in history, the spillway gates will be used to pass floodwaters at Garrison Reservoir.

Oahe releases will be maintained at the 85,000 cfs rate through June 2 and then quickly stepped up to 130,000 cfs during the first week of June. Releases are scheduled to peak at 150,000 cfs no later than mid-June. The reservoir will peak within a foot of the top of the spillway gates at 1619 feet.

Big Bend releases will mirror those from Oahe, with its reservoir remaining essentially level at 1420 feet.

Releases from Fort Randall will gradually increase from the current 67,000 cfs to 100,000 cfs during the first week of June. Releases are scheduled to peak at 148,000 cfs no later than mid-June.

Releases from Gavins Point will gradually increase from the current 69,000 cfs to 100,000 cfs during the first week of June. Releases are scheduled to peak at 150,000 cfs no later than mid-June.

“State and local emergency management teams will be the point of contact for residents needing information about flooding in their area,” said Kim Thomas, Chief of the Emergency Management Office here. Below are contact Web sites and phone numbers.

State Emergency Contact Numbers

These Web sites and phone numbers are also available on Corps Facebook page (www.facebook.com/OmahaUSACE) under the State, County and Local agencies tab.

* Iowa

* www.iowahomelandsecurity.org

* 515.725.3231

* Montana

* http://dma.mt.gov/des

* 406.324.4777

* Nebraska

* www.nema.ne.gov

* 24-hour operations - 402. 471.7421

* 24-hour emergency - 402.499.1219

* 24-hour emergency - 402.499.1227

* State EOC - 877.297.2368
* North Dakota

* www.nd.gov/des

* 701.328.8100

* 800.773.3259

* South Dakota

* www.breadysd.com

* 605.773.3231

* 877.579.0015

* Wyoming

* http://wyohomelandsecurity.state.wy.us/

* 307.777.4663 (HOME)

More Montana flooding means larger dam releases downstream

Major rainfall on Saturday, May 28 in Montana has worsened statewide flooding. As many people are saying, some areas of the state have received a years worth of rain in just a few weeks.

Saturday evening, the Corps of Engineers released revised reservoir release projections, and levels continue to press higher.

In short, lower reservoirs, including Gavin's Point Dam which releases into the freeflowing Lower Missouri River, will be releasing 150,000 cubic feet per second (cfs)by mid-June. This is much higher and faster than predicted just a few days ago.

It is beginning to appear that, as the Corps tries to spread the most accurate up to date information so affected communities can plan, each significant storm or rain event will cause predictions to jump again.

Emergency management agencies from the local to federal level are scrambling to keep informed of changing conditions and trying to understand their impact.

What is clear - many communities will see unprecedented flood heights, and the flooding will last for months to come as water is moved out of the reservoir system.

The flow of flood related news has become a flood of its own, and I won't attempt to keep up with the daily flood news in this blog. We're changing the focus of the blog to posting the latest predictions relevant to the whole basin and stories that help understand the scale of the event.

Thursday, May 26, 2011

Latest Press Release: 110,000 cfs by end of June

The Corps of Engineers Omaha District has just released the latest projection that releases from Gavin's Point Dam will increase to 110,000 cfs by the end of June.

Here's the link to the press release on their facebook page:
http://www.facebook.com/notes/us-army-corps-of-engineers-omaha-district/dam-releases-to-reach-historic-levels/226335560712480

Here's the link to Omaha District Press Releases:
http://www.nwo.usace.army.mil/html/pa/pahm/newsreleases2011.htm

Here's the press release. Predictions for all mainstem Corps dams are included:


Dam Releases to Reach Historic Levels
May 26, 2011
Omaha, Neb. – Releases from the Missouri River reservoirs will reach historic levels in the coming weeks, the result of above-normal snow in the mountains and extraordinary rain over the last several weeks.  Significant flooding in cities, towns and agricultural land is expected in North and South Dakota with many areas from Sioux City, Iowa, to the Mississippi rising above flood stage.

Missouri River basin flooding updates

commentary by Steve Schnarr

Unprecedented releases of water from upper river dams are due to massive snowpack melting combined with heavy rains. That water is combining with recent heavy rains in the lower river to cause flooding throughout the basin. Looking into the future, things don't look good. This year, snowpack accumulation above Garrison Dam in North Dakota was 141 percent of "normal" this year. Of that snowpack, 132 percent remains unmelted. With a long, cool spring, the danger of flooding remains for months to come.

Releases at Garrison Dam, the current hotspot along the mainstem, will be ramped up to 85,000 cubic feet per second (cfs) by Monday. This is 20,000 more than the previous record and is expected to remain at this level throughout the summer. This level will cause major flooding in Bismark/Mandan. According to a KX TV story linked below, the maximum release from the dam is 140,000 cfs. The emergency spillway can be opened releasing a total of an amazing 660,000 cfs (There's NO reason to believe, at this point, that either of these levels would be reached).

Wednesday, May 25, 2011

News Reports on flooding throughout the basin

As snow melts mixes with rain in the upper basin and spring storms parade across the Great Plains and into Missouri and Iowa, the Missouri River is beginning to approach flood stage throughout the basin. Because of the dams, this is a pretty rare and serious event. As always, it is additional spring/summer rain that will make the difference in major flooding.

The Corps of Engineers bases their flood storage capacity in the reservoirs on predicted snowpack in the mountains (along with estimated rainfall in late spring). Both of these numbers are much larger than predicted so we are currently facing a situation where the dam releases are increasing at the same time spring rains are happening. In Bismark, ND, for example, the Corps just announced they will be ramping releases of Garrison Dam to 85,000 cfs and city officials are expecting a record flood there (since the dams were built). Gavin's Point Dam near Yankton, SD has remained steady for over a week at 55,000 cfs, but releases began increasing yesterday and are expected to bump up to above 70,000.

Below Gavin's Point Dam, communities in Nebraska and Iowa on down to St. Joseph have been facing high water due to the dam releases for over a month. While other parts of the country were getting hammered by rain, the Missouri River was spared. That's changed, and new predictions for the river have most gages from Omaha down approaching or well into flood stage.

Here's a link where you can see the hydrological predictions for gages you select in the Missouri River basin. Click here. Check the gage you want to see on the left and the information you want on the right then click "Make My River Page" You can bookmark your selected page for reference as the flood season progresses.

There are links to other great river stage products and flooding maps on the Missouri River Relief "River Links" page: www.riverrelief.org/links/

Here's a string of stories related to flooding across the basin, for a taste of how different communities are being affected.Click the article title to read it.So much is happening right now, you can really get a feel for it by checking out the home page of each news source for updates in that local area.

Montana
Great Falls Tribune - May 22, 2011: "Snowmelt and rain close roads, flood buildings around region"
Great Falls Tribune - May 24, 2011: "Much of Montana under flood warning or watch status" 
Great Falls Tribune - Photo Gallery

North Dakota
Bismark Tribune - May 24, 2011: "Ready for 75,000 cfs? Bismark braces for bigger Missouri River" 
Bismark Tribune - May 24, 2011: "Water System Driving Corps' control of Missouri River"
Bismark Tribune - May 25, 2011: "Rising Missouri Challenges Us" 
Associated Press - May 25, 2011: "North Dakota National Guard returns to flood duty to help Bismarck and Minot areas"
KFYR TV - May 25, 2011: "Bismark Flooding to be worse than expected"
Bismark Tribune - May 25, 2011: "For some, it's time to seek higher ground"

South Dakota
Yankton Press-Dakotan - May 24, 2011: "Rising Water to force aggressive dam releases"

Nebraska
Omaha World Herald - May 25, 2011: "Flooding Coming...but how much?"

Missouri 
St. Joseph News-Press - May 24, 2011: "‘No flexibility left and no relief in sight' - Continuing rains putting pressure on river"

It appears that other Missouri communities haven't caught on to the impending flood yet. I wasn't able to find much else on the web yet.