Sunday, May 29, 2011

Corps updates reservoir release forecast to unprecedented levels

On Saturday evening, May 28, the Corps of Engineers updated reservoir release projections again. The previous record release from Gavin's Point Dam was 70,000 cfs in 1997. Projected releases by mid-June have been increased to 150,000 cfs.

Press Releases from the US Army Corps Omaha District can be accessed on their website here: http://www.nwo.usace.army.mil/html/pa/pahm/newsreleases2011.htm

Here's the Corps release:

Omaha, Neb. – Rapidly changing weather conditions in Montana, northern Wyoming and the western Dakotas have prompted the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to make adjustments to previously announced releases. Future releases will reach record levels considerably higher than those previously announced.

Releases from the Missouri River reservoirs, already at historic levels, will be increased again due to higher than forecast rains in North Dakota yesterday. Record flows and flooding are the result of above-normal snowpack and extraordinary rain events during the last several weeks. Significant flooding in cities, towns and agricultural land is expected in North and South Dakota with many areas from Sioux City, Iowa, to the Mississippi rising above flood stage.

Flows from five of the six dams are expected to reach a record 150,000 cfs by no later than mid-June. The previous record releases took place in the fall of 1997 at Gavins Point Dam in Yankton, S.D.

“Protecting lives is our number one priority right now,” said Brig. Gen. John McMahon, Commander of the Northwestern Division of the Army Corps of Engineers. “We are working closely with state and local emergency management teams to identify potential flood areas, provide residents with the most current information and help protect vital public infrastructure.”

People living along the river are encouraged to make evacuation plans to protect their possessions and property. Maps for potential flood areas can be found at: www.nwo.usace.army.mil. Residents in communities along the river are encouraged to contact their local emergency management offices for additional details.

Flooded areas are expected to be inundated for several months.

“Moving water out of the reservoirs is essential,” said General McMahon. “Our release plan is based on the rain we’ve already received and that which is forecast for this weekend and the snow melt forecast. More heavy rain storms could cause major revisions.”

“Due to our vigilant dam safety program, all dams are well prepared to handle the onslaught of floodwaters,” said McMahon. “This is what these reservoirs were designed to do. They are inspected and maintained on rigid schedules. Our dams are sound.”

In the last month, portions of the upper basin have received a year’s worth of rain. “The amount of rain has nearly filled the reservoirs, doing away with the flexibility we had built into our operations for this year,” said Jody Farhat, Chief of the Water Management Division here. “With the arrival of the 140 percent-of-normal snowpack runoff, all the reservoirs will reach their maximum levels, and two will use surcharge storage requiring the operation of the spillways.” Surcharge storage is storage in excess of the exclusive flood control pool. The exclusive flood control pool is the area of the reservoir designed exclusively for the storage of floodwaters.

“Our initial release plans were based on rains already received as well as what’s in the forecast for snowmelt,” said Farhat. “The continuous heavy rains we’re experiencing throughout the basin have dramatically altered our release plans and if we continue to receive heavy rains like this, major revisions in the plan will be necessary.”

Releases out of Fort Peck, Mont., will start to step up next week and are expected to reach 50,000 cfs by June 6. The reservoir will use several feet of surcharge storage above the exclusive flood control pool as the spillway gates are raised.

Garrison releases will increase from the current 80,000 cfs to 85,000 cfs on Monday and Tuesday, and will quickly be stepped up to 120,000 in early June. Releases are scheduled to reach 150,000 cfs no later than mid-June. The reservoir will utilize several feet of surcharge storage above the exclusive flood control pool as the spillway gates are raised. For the first time in history, the spillway gates will be used to pass floodwaters at Garrison Reservoir.

Oahe releases will be maintained at the 85,000 cfs rate through June 2 and then quickly stepped up to 130,000 cfs during the first week of June. Releases are scheduled to peak at 150,000 cfs no later than mid-June. The reservoir will peak within a foot of the top of the spillway gates at 1619 feet.

Big Bend releases will mirror those from Oahe, with its reservoir remaining essentially level at 1420 feet.

Releases from Fort Randall will gradually increase from the current 67,000 cfs to 100,000 cfs during the first week of June. Releases are scheduled to peak at 148,000 cfs no later than mid-June.

Releases from Gavins Point will gradually increase from the current 69,000 cfs to 100,000 cfs during the first week of June. Releases are scheduled to peak at 150,000 cfs no later than mid-June.

“State and local emergency management teams will be the point of contact for residents needing information about flooding in their area,” said Kim Thomas, Chief of the Emergency Management Office here. Below are contact Web sites and phone numbers.

State Emergency Contact Numbers

These Web sites and phone numbers are also available on Corps Facebook page (www.facebook.com/OmahaUSACE) under the State, County and Local agencies tab.

* Iowa

* www.iowahomelandsecurity.org

* 515.725.3231

* Montana

* http://dma.mt.gov/des

* 406.324.4777

* Nebraska

* www.nema.ne.gov

* 24-hour operations - 402. 471.7421

* 24-hour emergency - 402.499.1219

* 24-hour emergency - 402.499.1227

* State EOC - 877.297.2368
* North Dakota

* www.nd.gov/des

* 701.328.8100

* 800.773.3259

* South Dakota

* www.breadysd.com

* 605.773.3231

* 877.579.0015

* Wyoming

* http://wyohomelandsecurity.state.wy.us/

* 307.777.4663 (HOME)

More Montana flooding means larger dam releases downstream

Major rainfall on Saturday, May 28 in Montana has worsened statewide flooding. As many people are saying, some areas of the state have received a years worth of rain in just a few weeks.

Saturday evening, the Corps of Engineers released revised reservoir release projections, and levels continue to press higher.

In short, lower reservoirs, including Gavin's Point Dam which releases into the freeflowing Lower Missouri River, will be releasing 150,000 cubic feet per second (cfs)by mid-June. This is much higher and faster than predicted just a few days ago.

It is beginning to appear that, as the Corps tries to spread the most accurate up to date information so affected communities can plan, each significant storm or rain event will cause predictions to jump again.

Emergency management agencies from the local to federal level are scrambling to keep informed of changing conditions and trying to understand their impact.

What is clear - many communities will see unprecedented flood heights, and the flooding will last for months to come as water is moved out of the reservoir system.

The flow of flood related news has become a flood of its own, and I won't attempt to keep up with the daily flood news in this blog. We're changing the focus of the blog to posting the latest predictions relevant to the whole basin and stories that help understand the scale of the event.

Thursday, May 26, 2011

Latest Press Release: 110,000 cfs by end of June

The Corps of Engineers Omaha District has just released the latest projection that releases from Gavin's Point Dam will increase to 110,000 cfs by the end of June.

Here's the link to the press release on their facebook page:
http://www.facebook.com/notes/us-army-corps-of-engineers-omaha-district/dam-releases-to-reach-historic-levels/226335560712480

Here's the link to Omaha District Press Releases:
http://www.nwo.usace.army.mil/html/pa/pahm/newsreleases2011.htm

Here's the press release. Predictions for all mainstem Corps dams are included:


Dam Releases to Reach Historic Levels
May 26, 2011
Omaha, Neb. – Releases from the Missouri River reservoirs will reach historic levels in the coming weeks, the result of above-normal snow in the mountains and extraordinary rain over the last several weeks.  Significant flooding in cities, towns and agricultural land is expected in North and South Dakota with many areas from Sioux City, Iowa, to the Mississippi rising above flood stage.

Missouri River basin flooding updates

commentary by Steve Schnarr

Unprecedented releases of water from upper river dams are due to massive snowpack melting combined with heavy rains. That water is combining with recent heavy rains in the lower river to cause flooding throughout the basin. Looking into the future, things don't look good. This year, snowpack accumulation above Garrison Dam in North Dakota was 141 percent of "normal" this year. Of that snowpack, 132 percent remains unmelted. With a long, cool spring, the danger of flooding remains for months to come.

Releases at Garrison Dam, the current hotspot along the mainstem, will be ramped up to 85,000 cubic feet per second (cfs) by Monday. This is 20,000 more than the previous record and is expected to remain at this level throughout the summer. This level will cause major flooding in Bismark/Mandan. According to a KX TV story linked below, the maximum release from the dam is 140,000 cfs. The emergency spillway can be opened releasing a total of an amazing 660,000 cfs (There's NO reason to believe, at this point, that either of these levels would be reached).

Wednesday, May 25, 2011

News Reports on flooding throughout the basin

As snow melts mixes with rain in the upper basin and spring storms parade across the Great Plains and into Missouri and Iowa, the Missouri River is beginning to approach flood stage throughout the basin. Because of the dams, this is a pretty rare and serious event. As always, it is additional spring/summer rain that will make the difference in major flooding.

The Corps of Engineers bases their flood storage capacity in the reservoirs on predicted snowpack in the mountains (along with estimated rainfall in late spring). Both of these numbers are much larger than predicted so we are currently facing a situation where the dam releases are increasing at the same time spring rains are happening. In Bismark, ND, for example, the Corps just announced they will be ramping releases of Garrison Dam to 85,000 cfs and city officials are expecting a record flood there (since the dams were built). Gavin's Point Dam near Yankton, SD has remained steady for over a week at 55,000 cfs, but releases began increasing yesterday and are expected to bump up to above 70,000.

Below Gavin's Point Dam, communities in Nebraska and Iowa on down to St. Joseph have been facing high water due to the dam releases for over a month. While other parts of the country were getting hammered by rain, the Missouri River was spared. That's changed, and new predictions for the river have most gages from Omaha down approaching or well into flood stage.

Here's a link where you can see the hydrological predictions for gages you select in the Missouri River basin. Click here. Check the gage you want to see on the left and the information you want on the right then click "Make My River Page" You can bookmark your selected page for reference as the flood season progresses.

There are links to other great river stage products and flooding maps on the Missouri River Relief "River Links" page: www.riverrelief.org/links/

Here's a string of stories related to flooding across the basin, for a taste of how different communities are being affected.Click the article title to read it.So much is happening right now, you can really get a feel for it by checking out the home page of each news source for updates in that local area.

Montana
Great Falls Tribune - May 22, 2011: "Snowmelt and rain close roads, flood buildings around region"
Great Falls Tribune - May 24, 2011: "Much of Montana under flood warning or watch status" 
Great Falls Tribune - Photo Gallery

North Dakota
Bismark Tribune - May 24, 2011: "Ready for 75,000 cfs? Bismark braces for bigger Missouri River" 
Bismark Tribune - May 24, 2011: "Water System Driving Corps' control of Missouri River"
Bismark Tribune - May 25, 2011: "Rising Missouri Challenges Us" 
Associated Press - May 25, 2011: "North Dakota National Guard returns to flood duty to help Bismarck and Minot areas"
KFYR TV - May 25, 2011: "Bismark Flooding to be worse than expected"
Bismark Tribune - May 25, 2011: "For some, it's time to seek higher ground"

South Dakota
Yankton Press-Dakotan - May 24, 2011: "Rising Water to force aggressive dam releases"

Nebraska
Omaha World Herald - May 25, 2011: "Flooding Coming...but how much?"

Missouri 
St. Joseph News-Press - May 24, 2011: "‘No flexibility left and no relief in sight' - Continuing rains putting pressure on river"

It appears that other Missouri communities haven't caught on to the impending flood yet. I wasn't able to find much else on the web yet.

Friday, May 20, 2011

High River Levels Not Helping Boating Businesses

 Originally broadcast on KCAU Channel 9 (Sioux City, IA) on May 16, 2011
Click here for original link

The high water level on the Missouri River is causing problems for some local businesses.

With all of this beautiful weather its finally boating season but on the contrary it's also flooding season where all the rivers in our area are above average which isn't savvy for some boating businesses.

Boating season is finally here for most of us. But for the Missouri River Boat Club the docks are still ashore and the boats are dry.

Homeowners Urged to Protect Septic Systems

Originally broadcast on Channel 5 KFYR (Bismark, ND) on May 16, 2011
Click here for original link

The Missouri River is on the rise, and while not much can be done to control the rising water, homeowners are urged to protect their septic systems.

If drains in the house run slowly or are backing up, pumping the septic tank will provide, at best, three or four days of reprieve, but the problem will return. Keep in mind that pumping will make the tank lighter, increasing the possibility that it could float out of saturated ground. Wait until the water recedes before pumping the tank.

The best solution is to plug all drains in the basement and drastically reduce water use in the house. Here are some ways to do that: